New Research Highlights Flawed Process and Flawed Assumptions Plague Texas Water Planning
Reservoirs Rarely Hold as Much as Planned—And It’s Only Getting Worse
April 4, 2025
NORTHEAST TEXAS — A new analysis of Texas reservoirs reveals crucial flaws in Texas’ water planning process and in reservoir yield assessments, raising urgent concerns for legislators and policymakers. The findings highlight systemic issues that could jeopardize water security and economic stability across the state. The report, commissioned by the Texas Conservation Alliance and independently conducted by researcher Jordan Furnans PhD, PE, PG, (Regional Director, LRE Water) exposes some of the challenges of continuing to rely heavily on reservoirs to meet our state’s water needs. It details planned reservoirs, explores the challenges of accurately measuring how much water planned reservoirs will provide, and spotlights conflicts of interest present in the water planning process.
“Reservoirs forever alter Texas’ landscape and natural environment,” said Janice Bezanson, Senior Policy Director of the Texas Conservation Alliance. “They take private property through eminent domain, and destroy communities, livelihoods and family homes, while drowning irreplaceable ecosystems. For decades, reservoirs have been the go-to tool for developing our state’s water needs, but a changing climate and advances in innovation demonstrate they are not the solution for our future. It’s time for Texas to move to more modern and less damaging solutions to meet water needs.”
Key findings from the report include:
- Inaccurate Assumptions – Texas water planners assume that future water inflows and net reservoir evaporation rates will mirror historical data, despite evidence that these assumptions do not always hold true. The report details specific examples from Cedar Ridge Reservoir to the Highland Lakes, where the anticipated water generated by creating a reservoir has continuously been reduced when using newer data and models.
- Conflicts of Interest – Engineering and other consulting firms performing the planning work may be incentivized to develop water management strategies for which they are later hired to design, build, and/or operate. The report details a specific example of a proposed reservoir, Lake Ringgold, where water planners who promoted a project were recently awarded a contract, despite availability of better alternatives for water development.
- Flawed Process – The state water planning process is slow to adapt to evolving water supply realities and local government initiatives. The report outlines a case where the City of Abilene independently pursued an alternative water supply strategy, Fort Stockton Holdings Water Supply, outside of the regional and state water planning process, reducing the necessity for the Cedar Ridge Reservoir.
- Outdated Science – There is a need for updated hydrologic models and planning strategies that reflect modern climate data and hydrological trends. Legislative oversight is needed to ensure that water projects are evaluated based on current conditions, not outdated assumptions. The state water planning process should be more adaptable, allowing for dynamic adjustments in response to new supply sources and evolving water needs.
- Unnecessary Impact on Texans – The Marvin Nichols Reservoir, included in state water plans since 1968, has faced persistent opposition due to economic and environmental impacts. Yield projections have steadily declined but updated hydrological data suggests that firm yield estimates may still be overstated. The idea that the Marvin Nichols Reservoir is the most feasible supply alternative for sustaining and growing the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex area is highly questionable and what makes this project controversial.
In conclusion, the findings of this report highlight the urgent need for legislative action to modernize Texas’ water planning process, ensure accurate yield projections, address conflicts of interest, and improve flexibility in adapting to new water supply challenges.
Visit TexasReservoirs.Study to download the complete study.
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Media Contact:
Jennifer Swanson
512-731-9486